Macedonian Foreign Minister Bujar Osmani (right) welcomes his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, to the OSCE summit in Skopje on November 30. Radio Free Europe.

Comment/analysis – Sasha Uzunov, Editor, Alternate Comms

No matter where you stand on the issue of the Ukraine war, you’re pro Ukrainian or pro Russian, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov literally stole the show at the OSCE conference in Macedonia recently.

The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) is an international body made up of nations states in Europe, North America, and Asia. Macedonia held the current Presidency of this body. 

Enormous drama was being built up before hand, will he or will he not be allowed to attend the conference because of sanctions, in particular European air space banning Russian flights. Macedonia gave permission as did some of the neighbouring states.

Lavrov, a feisty character with an excellent command of English, let it rip at the conference, blaming the West over the Ukraine War and justifying Russia’s Special Military Operation (SMO)- its invasion of Ukraine and so forth.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made sure he was nowhere in sight and had left Macedonia way before before Lavrov’s speech. Baltic States – Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, and the Ukraine boycotted the OSCE meeting.

What do we make of this Kabuki theatre? Some have suggested that Lavrov was “permitted” to attend in order to get Western audiences accustomed to Russia slowly allowed back into the international fold? Others have claimed there were behind the scenes deals done between Russia and the US over the Ukraine. Or maybe was it none of the above. 

THREE FRONT WAR – Ukraine lose? Israel win? China untouched?

No modern world power has ever won a three front or two front global war. Germany tried twice and failed – WWI and WWII. US invaded Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003 and failed. So, the likelihood of the US waging a three front war – backing Ukraine and Israel and taking on China remain dubious. I don’t profess to be Nostradamus or a fortune teller or a tarot card reader, but on the balance of probabilities Ukraine looks like losing, Israel probably has a better chance of beating Hamas, its Palestinian nemesis. If the US is tied up aiding Ukraine and Israel at the same time, it is not possible for it to have the resources to take on China. Something would have to give- that is more likely to be Ukraine. I can’t see the US abandoning Israel