Analysis/Opinion- Sasha Uzunov
The terror attack on a concert hall in Moscow, the Russian capital on 22 March 2024- there is something that just doesn’t add up. Something has been bugging me about this terror incident. Something just doesn’t sound right.
A group called ISIS-K, an Islamist/Jihadist group, is believed to be behind the attack in Russia, according Western experts. Russian President Vladimir Putin points the finger at Ukraine and its supporter the US.
International punditry or military analysis is a tough job at the best of times. I don’t profess to be an expert on the Russia-Ukraine War or Special Military Operation (SMO), call it what you will. I have kept my analysis on the Russia-Ukraine war to the nuts and bolts of the war.
My area of “expertise” was Afghanistan – the 2001-21 war period. I visited the country three times in 2007, 2008 and 2013.
Having worked in Afghanistan as part of Canadian media crew led by prominent Canadian journalist Scott Taylor, we had the opportunity to speak to people who were Taliban or “Islamists” such as 14 year old Shahirullah, originally from Pakistan, held in Kabul prison in 2008.
Their modus operandi was to commit suicide, either self detonating a bomb strapped on them or driving a vehicle packed with explosives or fighting until shot dead, whilst performing Jihad.
In Shahirullah’s case he was strapped to a car loaded wth explosives but his handler’s remote control in another car failed to work, hence the teenage would be Jihadist was captured alive by Afghan security forces.
The purported ISIS-K terrorists, ethnic Tajiks, in Moscow were captured, some fleeing towards the Ukraine border. If they were Jihadists why would they be running away? And why towards the Ukraine border? Why would they be accepting money for a job when they want to die in battle and go to heaven?
It suggests that foreign state actors, opposed to Russia, are at play in launching the terror attack in Moscow.
This is conjecture on my part based on my Afghanistan experiences. I could simply be wrong.
I explained to Paul Toohey that it would be very difficult if not impossible for a military victory, emphasising the insurgency nature of of the warfare, a la Vietnam War.
In August 2021 my analysis proved to be correct when the US pulled out of Afghanistan after having lost the 20 year insurgency.